ARKANSAS, USA — Winter is on the way, and so is a more active subtropical jet stream. It may lead to more storm systems passing over Arkansas and Oklahoma. The polar jet stream will likely stay farther north, keeping the coldest air in Canada, limiting cold air outbreaks across the U.S.
How will these wind streams impact how much snow, rain, ice, and tornadoes we get this winter?
To track snow across the nation, tap HERE for our interactive radar.
EL NIÑO | WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
We have entered the warm phase for the ENSO oscillation. That means the eastern Pacific Ocean waters near the equator are warmer than normal. Generally, they are running 1.5 - 2 degrees above normal. This small change creates drastic changes in wind streams across the northern hemisphere.
The first big change it makes is the orientation and position of the jet streams over the U.S.A. The polar jet and subtropical jet will have a larger distance between them. The polar jet will stay farther north into Canada, while the subtropical jet will stay more active over the southern U.S., bringing more low pressures and thus more chances for rain and snow, although many times these systems may be on the weaker side.
SNOWFALL
We are expecting slightly more snowfall this winter. This one is tough. About 70% of the time we typically get slightly less snowfall during an El Niño winter, but every once in a while we will get slammed with more snow too. We believe with a more weather pattern in the south, there will be more opportunities for small snows that gradually add up. But also expect that many times those systems just bring rain.
ICE
We are expecting a smaller chance of a major ice storm. We may still get light icing events, which can also cause major problems, but crippling ice will not be as likely. Our worst ice storms have happened during La Niña winters, not El Niño winters.
RAINFALL
We are expecting more rainfall this winter. With a more active subtropical jet, more systems are likely to pass by bringing more chances of rain. Many times it will be light, but they should add up. Generally, we get 8 to 10 inches of rain from December through February. This year we are expecting 10-12".
SEVERE WEATHER
We are expecting less severe weather this winter. The cold season has spawned many tornadoes and hail storms in the past. We've noticed that there are more severe thunderstorms during La Niña winters than El Niño winters. Hopefully, we get fewer tornadoes.
TEMPERATURES
We are expecting fairly average temperatures this winter, which means lots of highs in the 40s and 50s across Arkansas. We will have colder days and warmer days, but they should average out fairly evenly. With the polar jet stream staying farther north much of the winter, expect huge cold air outbreaks to be kept at a minimum. Multiple weaker cooldowns are expected. On the flip side, we are expecting more clouds this winter, which may limit how warm the hottest days get.
WHAT DOES FOLKLORE SAY?
This year we had a vast majority of spoons and forks in the persimmon seeds. That suggests our winter will be mild and snowy. That just means a lot of snows closer to 32 degrees that quickly melt later.
-5NEWS Weather Team
Subscribe to 5NEWS for exclusive content: https://www.youtube.com/c/5news?sub_confirmation=1
Follow 5NEWS:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/5news
Twitter: https://twitter.com/5NEWS
Instagram: https://instagram.com/5newsonline
Website: https://www.5newsonline.com
5NEWS (Channel 5) is a CBS-affiliated television station covering the Arkansas River Valley and Northwest Arkansas. The station was first established in 1953 in Fort Smith, Ark.