There are two parts to the forecast in the next 24-hours.
First, we have a chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. These storms will be passing thunderstorms and won't last long.
Second, we're watching a complex of storms that will develop in southern Kansas and Missouri and move south. This rain will be more sustained and more widespread. Flash flooding and a risk of damaging winds along the leading edge is possible.
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for NW Arkansas due to forecast rain falling on already saturated soils.
- Scattered storms
- Not everyone sees rain
- Isolated severe
- Rain arrives and moves out fast.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning
- Widespread thunderstorms
- Everyone gets rain
- Severe possible along the leading edge; damaging wind
- Flash flooding risk
- Rain lingering into Thursday morning.
Beyond tonight, the weather pattern is looking somewhat tranquil and warm again for the next week. The exception will be on Saturday when we'll have another chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
There are more hints of a fall front late next week. It'll be October by then, time will tell if this is the real deal or not.