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Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, what does that mean for Arkansas?

If Phil sees his shadow, that means he is predicting six more weeks of winter.
Credit: KFSM

Happy Groundhog Day! 

Today is the day that people rely on Punxsutawney Phil to predict the weather for the next six weeks. If he sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter, meanwhile if he doesn't see his shadow, there will be an early spring. 

This morning Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, meaning he is predicting there will be six more weeks of winter. 

Credit: KFSM

But how accurate is he? And does that really mean there is six more weeks of winter in Arkansas?

Technically no, this does not necessarily mean Arkansas will have six more weeks of winter. 

Since 1887, Phil has predicted 20 springs and 105 winters. When we compare these predictions to past climate data, Phil has been accurate only 40% of the time. 

Phil's forecast for this year does align with The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center(CPC)'s outlook for the next six weeks for us.

The CPC's monthly outlook for February shows that Arkansas could see cooler temperatures, while slightly warmer temperatures are expected in the South.

Credit: KFSM

Based on the latest model outlooks, climate predictions, and trends we have seen this winter, I think we could definitely see six more weeks of winter in our area. 

The first official day of Spring is March 20, 2021.

Will Phil be right with his forecast this year for Arkansas? I guess we will have to wait six weeks to find out!

-Michelle

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